Will Coronavirus Ends?

 


So far, the response to the corona-virus pandemic has operated on the assumption that the worst will be over within a year or so. But what if the malaise lasts much longer? It’s a scenario that policymakers must recognize and prepare for.

Breathless media constantly repeat that a vaccine could be widely available by next spring. But even the spring of 2023 would be the fastest in medical history, and there’s no guarantee of that. Maybe antibodies will end up conferring little or no protection from infection, as is true for a few viruses. In that case, developing a vaccine would be a lot harder, and the concept of “herd immunity” would be meaningless. Almost everyone would remain susceptible, whether or not they’d had it within the past.

The novel corona-virus may never get away and populations around the world will need to learn to measure with it, the planet Health Organization (WHO).

The United Nations has projected that the corona-virus pandemic will dwindle the global economy by 3.2 per cent in 2020, wiping out all gains of the last four years. The UN WorldEconomic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report predicted the sharpest downturn for the global economy since the Great Depression in the 1930s, suggesting that $8.5 trillion will be lost over the next two years.

In January, the UN had estimated the worldwide economy would experience a 2.5 per cent growth in 2020. However, now, the UN predicts a modest rebound next year, mostly making up for lost output. "Developing countries also are likely to experience large fiscal deficits and high debt," the report highlighted.

The report also suggested the pandemic is causing an increase in poverty and inequality as 34.3million people are expected to fall below the extreme poverty line this year, with 56 per cent of them in Africa. Another 130 million are expected to join the list by 2030.

The UN report stated that without “quick breakthroughs” in COVID-19 vaccine and treatment developments, “the post-COVID-19 world will likely be vastly different.”

“The possibility of a slow recovery and prolonged economic slump with rising poverty and inequality looms large, the report underscored. Stronger development cooperation supporting efforts to contain the pandemic and extending economic and financial assistance to countries hardest hit by the crisis will remain critical for accelerating recovery and putting the world back on the trajectory of sustainable development, it added.

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, an American research institution, the pandemic has thrown a wrench in economies around the world, as several countries had to shut down businesses to prevent further community spread.

“The global economic outlook has changed drastically since the launch of WESP 2020 in January ”Chief Economist and Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development told reporters at the launch of the report.

“With the large-scale restrictions of economic activities and heightened uncertainties, the global economy has come to a virtual standstill in the second quarter of 2020,” he added. “We are now facing the grim reality of a severe recession of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression.”

Meanwhile, to fight the pandemic and minimize the impact of a catastrophic economic downturn, governments globally are rolling out fiscal stimulus measures that equal roughly 10 per cent of the world’s GDP.


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